As everything has its limit, the sun is now losing its brightness and warmth for Musharraf. His distant friends and mentors are now trying to tighten the noose to force him to make all-out, not half-hearted, efforts against the al-Qaeda and Taliban militants to stop their cross-border terrorist activities in Afghanistan, or leave the hard task to the US and US-dominated NATO forces to complete the job. But both the options would become suicidal for Musharraf. Now he can neither swallow it, nor throw it up.

To play squarely to his home gallery, Musharraf had although dismissed cross-border allegations by US, Afghan President Karzai and NATO forces as baseless and rubbish, but such 'gimmies' were not-enough to calm down the growing anti-US and anti-Musharraf resentment in Pakistan. The situation for Musharraf had further been worsened by renewed outcry raised in chorus by US Administration, President Karzai, NATO forces and even UN Representative in Afghanistan that the al-Qaeda and Taliban militants have "regrouped" in Pakistan and are establishing training camps for the militants to mount attacks on the West and in Afghanistan.

Increasing pressure
During the last several weeks a wild storm had been raised by the US Administration, sometimes with threats of US aid-cut in case Pakistan fails to smash and crush these rising militant groups working in the mountainous areas in the north-western region of Pakistan, particularly Balochistan and Waziristan. Of them, the US Senators seem to have taken the lead, urging US Administration to consider launching of military action against militant camps in Pakistan if Musharraf proves "incapable" of taking suitable action against the militants.

But Musharraf still claims that Pakistan had been doing its best, as a key-ally of America, to carry on its war on terror, saying that during the last three years, Pakistan Army had killed some one thousand militants and arrested several hundred of them, many of whom had been handed over to US Administration for trial. And in such operations, Pakistan Army had lost as many as seven hundred soldiers. But still president Bush and his colleagues are not fully satisfied with Musharraf's performance. They want more from him. US Vice-President Dick Cheny's "surprise" visit to Islamabad recently was to express the worries being felt by America and 'advise' Musharraf to further tighten his belt against the rising militants.

But more action on the part of Musharraf may bring more punches and kicks below his felt from the rising internal insurgency. The killing of the popular most tribal leader Nawab Akbar Bugti in air-action on his hide-out by Pakistan army choppers, had further worsened the situation for Musharraf. So Musharraf now apparently stands shaken between the devil and the sea! And to add fuel to the fire, the governor of North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) had recently described the militants' activities across the border as a sort of "liberation movement," which was considered by the UN representative in Afghanistan as "provocative," and "untrue" and asked Pakistan government to clarify its position vis-a-vis the governor's claim.

Even Iran, one of Pakistan's closest friendly neighbours, is not lagging behind. A top Iranian cleric had accused Pakistan of becoming a "terrorist sanctuary," following an upsurge on Pak-Iran border areas, which Iran considers as a part of American and Israeli "plot" against Iran and warned Pakistan not to fall in "US trap."

Admitting "lapses"
But, unfortunately, Musharraf is vacillating, under US pressure. He seems prone to admit his "lapses" regarding the US allegations of his inaction against the militants. Instead of holding his firm stand against US allegations of Pakistani intelligence servicemen's involvement in the militant activities, Musharraf had now come out with the admission that "some members" of the Pakistan intelligence security forces had turned "a blind eye" towards Taliban activities across the border of Afghanistan, thus indirectly corroborating what Karzai had been alleging since long. Musharraf's admission had come, following the remarks made by the out-going US Intelligence Director, Negroponte, that Pakistan was "harbouring" al Qaeda and Taliban militants.

Dick Cheny must have felt elevated with the assurance, given to him by Musharraf during their talks in Islamabad, that Pakistan would "force" foreign al-Qaeda and Taliban militants to leave the troubled tribal belt bordering Afghanistan. So it is another step forward for Karzai who had been insisting on this but always rebuffed by Musharraf. Not only that Musharraf also had admitted to Dick Cheny that these "people (militants) had came there (tribal areas) from outside. They are living in our mountains and spreading terror not just in Pakistan but in the entire world." What a bold confession on the part of the head of the state of Pakistan!

Whatever may be the effect of the stand or stance taken by Musharraf to consolidate his political Kursi (chair), the rot has now begun to be felt in whole of Pakistan, particularly in the north-western tribal areas. Pakistan, so to say, is now in a fearful grip of security scare, following a series of suicide attacks. Of these, the killing of some fifteen people, including a Judge and six lawyers, in a suicide bomb attack and killing of a woman provincial Minister of the Panjab from a close-range shooting by a militant because she was not following the so-called Islamic dress-code, had now raised new waves of insecurity not only for the innocent citizens but also for Musharraf himself who had already escaped three assassination attempts.

When Rome was burning...
As they say, "when Rome was burning, Nero was fiddling." The some condition is now prevailing in Pakistan. When the country was ablaze with fiery activities of the terrorists and other hostile forces, Musharraf suddenly jumped out on a whirl-wind peace-mission to several Muslim countries in the Mid-East and Far East, to ensure establishment of peace and security in the Mid-East, including solution of the Palestine issue!

According to some media experts, who in their analysis, had dubbed Musharraf's Mid-East peace-mission, as a part of his ambition to consolidate his position as a strong leader both at home and abroad. They think that Musharraf was taking the "lead" in the Mid-East diplomacy "to bolster his international standing in the run-up to the up-coming general elections to the provincial assemblies which would serve as an "electoral college" for electing the new President.

On the other hand, more wrong signals are coming out from more serious developments that cast their shadows on Musharraf's 'road-map' for success. It is now a historical truth or reality that neither the Afghan people nor any Afghan government had ever accepted the dividing Durand line, drawn by then British rulers of India, between Afghanistan and India. So the fire was brewing there, being stoked from time to time, to keep the issue alive. Recently, it had taken a fearful shape with the intensification in the activities of al-Qaeda and Taliban militants in cross-border terrorism. And Musharraf's recant order to fence some 35km or so along the Durand line to stop cross-border terrorism has further intensified the opposition from Afghanistan.

The bottom line
In fact, Afghan opposition to Musharraf's decision to fence the borders, questioning "in which country" the barbed-wire could be erected, is likely to open the Pandora's Box after over a century since creation of the Durand line in 1893. Musharraf now seems to be in tight corner. Will America come to Musharraf's rescue? Perhaps yes, perhaps not. Because America wants friendship of Karzai as another ally to fight terrorism.

AMM Shahabuddin is a retired UN official.