Going Deeper
Taking stock of realities
Kazi Anwarul Masud
One may wonder whether the US policy of supporting undemocratic regimes has changed in the post-Cold War era, particularly relating to Bush's declaration of promoting democracy in Third World countries. Respected South Asian expert Stephen Cohen (of Brookings Institution), in a recent interview, spoke of US-Pakistan disagreement over the resurgence of the Taliban, whom Pakistan sees "as patriotic Pashtoons fighting an oppressive northern alliance-dominated government in Afghanistan," and the US administration, despite reservation expressed by the chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee about the US ability to increase military presence in Afghanistan to deal with increasing Taliban insurgency (headquartered in Quetta) and putting more pressure on President Musharraf as he is the only game in town. Pakistan's support of the Taliban insurgency is an answer to Pakistani belief of increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan and Hamid Karzai's "pro-Indian" stance and to counter the perceived Indian encirclement of Pakistan. Given the Bush administration's lack of encouragement to Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif (furthered by Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher's recent remarks that Pakistan is moving forward) may indicate deep-rooted conviction in successive US administrations that countries like Pakistan are better administered by the military than Western-style democracies. After the end of the Cold War with the ascendancy of neo-conservatism or neo-liberalism in the Western political thought, the Bretton Woods Institutions went through a transformation in their lending policy to the Third World and the Eastern Europe by insisting on "structural adjustment" defined as a package of economic and institutional measures to be adopted -- in return for loans. Though the aim of the adjustment was to promote free and competitive market economies with minimal state intervention, the conditionalities increasingly became more and more invasive and were interlinked with personal freedom, liberty and other elements of democracy. Good governance, accountability of the elected representatives, and corruption arresting the growth of economic development became the battle cry of the donors. While the demands made by the donors on the recipients were incontrovertible in principle, there is little doubt that the terrorist attacks of 9/11 had been the principal motivating factor in the change of Western thought process. But as Ambassador Richard Haas (formerly of the State Department) had once remarked that one-size-fits-all policy cannot be sustainable and US policies have to be adjusted according to existing local conditions one can see US policy being followed differently in different countries. Yet one cannot but wonder at the vitriolic US attitude towards Venezuela, though Chavez continues to get elected by the people, while side-stepping the undemocratic election of President Musharraf who, claims Husain Haqqani (of Boston University), has been given between $10 to $15 billion over the last five years. The Bush administration's largesse to the Musharraf regime is, of course, for his role in the war on terror. But it is doubtful how reliable Pakistan can be as an ally in the war on terror given the fact that Pakistan society is steeped in tribal culture and that two provinces -- Baluchistan and NWFP -- are ruled by Islamists. To the average Pakistani, US remains a very unpopular country and its invasion of Iraq is mostly seen as an attack on Islam. If one had thought that Jacques Chirac's dream of the European Union as a counterweight to the US would ever be realized, the dream has been shattered by the election of Nicolas Sarkozy as the new President of France. Sarkozy's admiration of President Bush is widely known, as is his determination in his capacity as interior minister of then Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin to restore the state's authority in the face of social disorder caused by the November 2005 ethnic riots that had effectively all but destroyed France's claim to a successful multi-cultural integrated society. Sarkozy is also known for his opposition to Turkish membership of the EU which is not only not favoured by the Bush administration but would also strengthen Islamic world's belief that EU is a club of the Christians. Besides, his election, added to that of Angela Merkel as German chancellor and the impending one of Gordon Brown as British prime minister would strengthen the European policy of Atlanticism in line with that of President Bush. The new entrants into EU have already displayed their Atalanticist policy by giving full support to Anglo-American invasion of Iraq when Jacques Chirac, Vladimir Putin, China and most of the world were opposing unipolarity and the invasion of Iraq. Possibility, however, remains of US-EU tension on London, Paris, and Berlin's aspiration for cultural hegemony on global warming and environmental issues and Bush administration's lukewarm attitude towards them. But in the ultimate analysis, Europe is unlikely to lock horns with the US given their multitudinous linkages. In such situations where the Western leaders are themselves not faithful to their propagation of democracy and are willing to accept aberration to suit their interest, then their insistence on some developing countries where democracy is itinerant and should not be intermittent is not only hypocritical but also unrealistic. While democracy remains the best course available to have a representative and accountable government, the donors would do well to take stock of the ground realities and then suggest an implementable course of action. Kazi Anwarul Masud is a former Secretary and Ambassador.
|