Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 1064 Wed. May 30, 2007  
   
Point-Counterpoint


Price hike, inflation, and price control


With the price increase of essentials capturing headlines of our national newspapers almost everyday, there has been no shortage of soul-searching for finding the reasons and no shortage of "economists" to suggest numerous solutions to a government desperately looking for means to curb a headline inflation.

These suggestions typically lack an understanding of the economic fundamentals of a growing nation. Some of these were suggesting that Bangladesh Bank should influence the banks to get more small importers enter into the import of essential commodities, the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh should be revitalized, salary of the government servants should be increased, etc.

If the international prices of these commodities increase by themselves, can the small importers or the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) import at a lower price and thereby offer a lower price to the consumers. In this context, I would like to humbly remind my readers that price rise is a consequence of rise of same items in the international market, less domestic production, too many people engaged in the trade/supply chain in the form of pseudo-employment and each one of them trying to earn some margin, no subsidy or association at the growers level unlike many other countries, less number of wholesale outlets and USD/BDT price in the local market, along with fuel price hike and discipline brought in by the task force on movement of goods (the 5 ton trucks can no more carry 10 ton goods). It is worthwhile mentioning that some amount (optimum level) of inflation might not be bad for the economy for employment generation and growth.

Export itself, such as increase in exports of fish, meat and vegetables to non-resident Bangladeshis may significantly contribute towards increase of price of those items in the local market thereby increasing inflation, but that does not mean we should stop giving subsidy to those items or discourage exports. The "easy money" holders also contribute significantly to inflation by buying items at inflated prices.

At the same time, the major importers of essentials did not become a cartel at their own will, situation has rather made them come into this position. In today's world of complex purchase economics, the whole commodity market in the world has entered into a bulk import phase. Besides, commercial banks cannot be forced to open L/Cs from the smaller importers. This is partly because the small enterprises are prone to market shocks and cannot sustain in the long term unless they acquire the scale.

On the other hand, our development partners will not allow any market distortions to be brought in, by forcing the banks to open L/Cs of small traders who do not measure up on the basis of commercial merit. This is not to say that vulnerable group support cannot continue, with law enforcing agencies such as Home Ministry, NBR, and Bangladesh Bank being more vigilant, but any kind of "control" march might give a wrong signal to the international community who wants us to further liberalize import regime.

Moreover, our experience with Trading Corporation of Bangladesh, which only chooses the lowest bidder, was very bad with regard to import of cement, sugar, onion, and aluminum ingot, and when the question came for "market stabilization." Let us explore some of the underlying reasons of price increase below.

Globally, price level has increased, imports have become costlier and increase in fuel prices in the local market has further stimulated the price hike. These are all realities and we have to live with it. We should not increase the expectation of public unnecessarily -- there is no reason telling people that it is the government's responsibility to lower the prices of essentials. In a market driven economy, this is almost impossible.

Export may contribute to increase in domestic prices. Local fish, vegetables, and meat are exported to Bangladeshis living in US, Europe, and Middle East at international prices. This creates scarcity of such items in the domestic markets, increasing the local price levels, especially in a situation when domestic production is not increasing (rather agricultural land is decreasing at the rate of 1% every year).

If we look at the way governance works in the developed countries, the government is mostly involved in the policy formulation. It is not the government's job to interfere in day-to-day activities of a private sector led economy. Probing the private sector inefficient, questioning their integrity, and thereby taking over the import activities do not help flourish business. We have seen import permit business long ago, which also did not help towards the efforts for lowering of domestic prices or to consolidate the position of small importers, rather questions of import of substandard products were raised. The prices of onion, sugar, garlic have come down a bit recently, this was obviously due to imports at competitive prices and part elimination of fats in the supply chain, and improvement of law and order situation. We must get comfortable with the fact that prices will rise as well as fall.

The farmers need more support. The United States government provides supports/subsidies directly at the farmers end. To implement the same in Bangladesh, we need registration of farmers and setting up of growers' associations. This will help farmers, modernize farming, and allow them to reach the market place directly, thereby eliminating the intervention of middlemen.

The business of middlemen has been found to be increasing the cost of commodities. Unemployment has played a role in this case. People without proper jobs have got engaged in the distribution and supply chains, creating multiple layers within a single process. It creates pseudo-employment without adding much value.

Resultantly, more than required number of stakeholders has been created and these people are interested in their own margins/cuts. The consumers end up paying for the income of all the middlemen who look for survival margin. While the middlemen cannot be eliminated overnight (it can create havoc if we can't find them alternate job/employment), the government can oversee their activities through law enforcing agencies and tax officials.

Marginalization of small operators will take place in a market economy; it is obvious that smarter players will replace inefficient operators. Hence, an efficient market grows up through an evolution process. The large enterprises of Bangladesh and the world have become large because of their inherent qualities. Leaders come up through the same process. And people or institutions without the inherent quality and urge to survive will fail, this is the hard truth.

The best way to run a market economy is to let it run on its own. The best way to intervene in a market economy is to work through it as its part and parcel, rather than creating selective distortions. Small importers cannot do wholesale commodity imports because they lack the capacity to operate at an efficient economic scale. TCB cannot control prices or break syndicates by importing on its own, but will succeed in inducing temporary distortions in the market for the benefit of no one.

So, what should we do now? Speak the truth! Prices of the essentials have gone up in the international market and it is not due to any mishandling on the part of the government. If the government allows itself to be blamed, it will create the perfect ground for opportunistic segments to ask for discounts and cutting corners with the rules.

What if the people do not understand the reasons for price hike? Speak the truth, again! And keep telling the truth, not the half-truth, the whole truth. There is no other alternative for the government because it does not control the prices of commodities in the international market, nor can it absolutely ensure bumper agricultural production, other than giving policy support, timely supply of inputs, where appropriate and in the appropriate manner.

The writer is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.
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