Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 1081 Sat. June 16, 2007  
   
Point-Counterpoint


Of Sino-US tensions


There has clearly been greater transparency on the part of the Chinese. I think that there are further opportunities for understanding better some of the strategic intentions of the Chinese," said US Defence Secretary Robert Gates on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the pre-eminent security conference in South-east Asia, at the beginning of this month. These words are fairly friendly when compared with the stance adopted by Donald Rumsfeld, who was habitually inclined to patronising a hard-line approach towards Beijing.

Apparently, in addition to having the personal soft touch of Robert Gates, these words are intended to muffle and pre-empt the expected Chinese reaction to the extremely pricking report by the Pentagon on Beijing's defence plan. The US Defence Department report released on May 25, apart from discussing China's focus on the Taiwan Strait as a potential flashpoint, took serious note of China's alleged plans to expand and modernise its military capabilities.

The use of incisive language in the Pentagon's annual report to the US Congress on China is not a new thing, but the tone of this year's report is specifically vitriolic in its mention of China's intentions to enhance and build its military capabilities to tackle the crises and conflicts beyond the Taiwan Island.

"Analysis of China's military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests that Beijing is also generating capabilities for other regional contingencies, such as conflict over resources or territory," the report asserted. Apparently, Washington is concerned over China's reported military build up, including deployment of long-range ballistic missiles and development of sophisticated submarines, via a flagrant ballooning of its "non-transparent" defence budget.

In March, China announced that it would increase its defence spending by 17.8 percent to nearly $45 billion in 2007. But the Pentagon report, citing US intelligence estimates, alleged that China's total defence budget could actually be between $85 billion and $125 billion.

As usual, the report alleged, "China's published defence budget does not include large categories of expenditure, including expenses for strategic forces, foreign acquisitions, military-related research and development, and the paramilitary forces."

The report has further expressed serious concern over China's deployment of the DF-31 family of ballistic nuclear missiles with capability to hit the United States, as well as the development of a new JIN-class submarine equipped to carry a nuclear-powered ballistic missile with a wide-firing range potential of more than 8,000 kilometres.

The Pentagon has specifically expressed bewilderment over the real intentions behind the fast-paced development of the JL-2 and JIN-class SSBNs submarines that have the ability to alter the nuclear balance in the Asia-Pacific region by enabling China to have more than nuclear deterrent.

The January test of an anti-satellite weapon by Beijing has already sent shock waves through the Pentagon, which is frantically trying to stop this programme in its nascent stage.

Obviously, China's expanding military capability is fast emerging as the key factor in determining the military balance in East Asia, and it will have lasting ramifications far beyond the Asia-Pacific region. China-phobia is perhaps one of the most dominating factors that have occupied the policy-making machinery at the Pentagon for quite a long time.

China's unbridled economic growth, coupled with a remarkable surge in its military capabilities, is increasingly enhancing its influence in the global power structure -- a factor that has started haunting the policy makers at the Pentagon to the extent of persistent phobia.

The growing trade deficit versus China has further pushed the Americans to resort to some extreme steps. Reportedly, some US Congressmen have been planning to introduce legislation to penalise imports from China, to counter a currency which they believe is severely undervalued, by as much as up to 40 percent, to cause this trade imbalance in favour of China.

The Pentagon report has obviously attracted flak from Beijing. Its appearance, amid increasing prospects of anti-China legislation in the US Congress, has ostensibly heightened tensions in Sino-US relations, which are already marred by the mutual conflict of interests over the Middle East situation.

Against this backdrop, the soft words from Robert Gates appear to be a damage-limiting exercise. Contrary to his predecessor's hawkish tendencies, Gates has been pursuing a relatively pragmatic approach towards global affairs.

Ever since he took charge of the Pentagon, he has been trying, though with little success, to influence President Bush to adopt more realistic and moderate line in the global arena -- particularly with respect to the Iraq operation.

He knows well that without China's support it will be very difficult for the Americans to ensure the much-needed stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Perhaps it is this compulsion that has been pushing him, in contrast with his hard-line peers in the Bush administration, to show restraint while broaching China. But the problem is that he is the only one in the current dispensation who propagates softness on China.

Dr. Imran Khalid is a freelance contributor to The Daily Star.