Before the insurgency took hold. Before US occupation authorities lost any chance to avoid the sectarian strife of today's Iraq. Now only the Iraqis can save Iraq.

They need the US military's help, no doubt. But the Bush administration has made no secret of the fact that the US troop buildup in Baghdad is simply buying time for the Iraqis to sort out their differences, create a government of national unity and show they can defend themselves.

So it is not whether the US can win the war. It is whether the Iraqis can, which is in great doubt.

With limited sign of progress in Baghdad, US officials are asking themselves how long it makes sense to tolerate an escalating rate of US casualties at least 3,576 dead since the war began in March 2003 while the Iraqis debate and delay.

In a speech Thursday, Bush struck a notably optimistic tone about his strategy and gave no indication he was ready to give up or change approach. Yet he lowered the bar on expectations and cited Israel as a model for defining success in Iraq: a functioning democracy that nonetheless absorbs terrorist attacks.

Among the questions central to the debate in Washington over winding up the conflict without widening it are:

_How much worse might things get if US troops left and the sectarian killing escalated?

_Would Turkey, Iran or other neighbouring states intervene militarily?

_Would the al-Qaeda terrorist organization inside Iraq secure a lasting haven from which it could launch attacks across the region? "Lighting the Middle East on fire," is how one Pentagon insider sees that outcome.

While there is no clear way out, there remains a reasonable basis for hope of escaping a collapse of the war effort.

It still is possible that the troop buildup, under way since January, will reduce sectarian violence in Baghdad enough to create the manoeuvring room that Iraqi leaders need to make critical political progress.

According to Frederick Kagan, an American Enterprise Institute analyst who recently visited Baghdad and is a leading supporter of the current strategy, the truly decisive phase of the current campaign will begin in late July or early August. He predicts that phase will bring much lower levels of violence by year's end.