Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 1112 Tue. July 17, 2007  
   
International


News Analysis
'Pak al-Qaeda zone poses dilemma for Musharraf'


With Pakistan at boiling point, President Pervez Musharraf faces a tough dilemma in the rugged and militant-infested frontier zone where al-Qaeda's leaders are allegedly holed up, analysts say.

The United States has put the embattled military ruler under pressure to use the momentum from last week's bloody assault on the pro-Taliban Red Mosque in Islamabad to launch a decisive operation along the frontier.

Apparent suicide attacks in revenge for the raid killed at least 71 people at the weekend, and followed calls from Osama bin Laden's terror network and its pro-Taliban allies for "jihad" against the Pakistani leader.

Meanwhile, Taliban militants in the lawless tribal zone of North Waziristan tore up a shaky peace deal signed with the government last September, increasing the sense of insecurity.

But analysts say Musharraf will also know that the region's conservative and fiercely independent tribes have bloodied the noses of all who have tried to subdue them since the subcontinent's British colonial rulers.

"Musharraf is in a very difficult position with very limited choices," Rasool Bakhsh Raees, professor of political science at the Lahore University of Management and Sciences, told AFP.

Musharraf, who seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999, has been "considerably weakened" by a political crisis over his suspension of Pakistan's chief justice, which sparked nationwide protests and violence, Raees said.

Even with what appears to be broad public support for the Red Mosque raid, Musharraf should not go too far, he added.

"The use of force has to be very prudent, you cannot crack everybody's head and (then) hope to relax. That is equally dangerous," Raees said.

Force has rarely been a successful policy in the tribal areas, which cover about a third of the porous 2,500-kilometre (1,500-mile) border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The region provided thousands of the "Jihadis" who battled the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s -- and welcomed back Taliban and al-Qaeda militants who fled the US-led invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11.

Army operations in North Waziristan and neighbouring South Waziristan to drive out the insurgents since 2004 have left more than 700 soldiers and 1,000 militants dead.

They also angered the heavily-armed Pashtuns -- the ethnic group from which Afghanistan's Taliban militia draws most of its strength -- who often regard their ethnicity as a bigger bond than their nationality.

That led to Pakistan signing peace deals with elders and militants in several tribal regions -- one of which was scrapped on Sunday -- in what it said was an attempt at a political solution.

But US and Nato officials together with Kabul have slammed the accords, saying they have led to an increase in multinational troops fighting the Taliban in southern and eastern Afghanistan.