Bangladesh can become middle income country by 2016, says WB
Staff Correspondent
Bangladesh can develop into a middle-income country (MIC) by 2016 if it liberalise trade further, increase energy prices, privatise selected state-owned enterprises and maintain its past record of economic stability, says a World Bank (WB) study released yesterday.Speaking at the launch of the study titled "Bangladesh: Strategy for sustained growth," Finance Adviser Mirza Azizul Islam agreed with the recommendations made by the study and said that the government is already implementing a number of them out of its own compulsion. Azizul, however, also outlined a number of possible fallouts from implementing these recommendations, ranging from greater unemployment and financial and food insecurity for the vulnerable groups. The finance adviser said that it is a mere coincidence that government and WB policies have converged and this does not mean that the government has surrendered its economic policies to the institution. Commenting on the study, WB Country Director Xian Zhu said, "If GDP growth picks up to a sustained rate of 7.5 percent, Bangladesh can become a middle-income group by 2016." "But, if average growth fails to the 3 percent rate seen in the 1980s, the middle-income aspiration will have to wait for another five decades," he cautioned. The study found that Bangladesh can achieve rapid growth by shifting from agriculture to labour-intensive manufacturing, deepening integration with international markets and unleashing the growth potential for major urban centres, especially Dhaka. The WB report provided eight specific policies for making the transition to the MIC status. These include reducing the maximum tariff rate to 15 percent by FY10 and discontinuing the protective use of value-added tax (VAT) by FY09. The report also recommended immediate hike in power and gas prices to at least cover all operating cost, which would be part of the automatic pricing formula that is already under government consideration. Internationally reputed transaction advisers for procurement and empowered utility managers to effectively collect payments, were suggested by the report for strengthening governance in power sector. The WB also suggested privatising national commercial banks and handing over Chittagong-port management to experienced private contractors to better facilitate finance and trade. Xian Zhu, however, cautioned, "If a broad consensus is reached, authorities and the people of Bangladesh would need to be mindful that some of the associated reforms will not be painless." Azizul also said that the political implications from rising inflation also pose a challenge, as it hurts fixed income groups by cutting into their savings. He, however, added that growing consumption and an increase in inflation suggests that people's combined income have increased in the past months. The finance adviser observed that if employment protection measures are removed as per the report's recommendation, there would be no one to look after the newly unemployed groups. Bangladesh's food insecurity would increase if the WB-suggested policy of crop-diversification towards high-yield crops is followed, he added. Former finance adviser Akbar Ali Khan observed that the WB focuses on traditional issues, but Bangladesh needs policies towards creating jobs. Although remittance from Bangladeshi expatriates exceeds foreign assistance in the country, the report has not looked into ways to link up expatriates in generating economic growth, he added. WB senior economist Sandeep Mahajan and Dhaka University Economics Professor MA Taslim also spoke on the occasion. The WB also organised a roundtable session titled "Can Bangladesh become a MIC within a decade?" after the launching of the report, where speakers mentioned equitable distribution of wealth, ensuring decentralised and effective governance and the effects of climate change as some of the biggest challenges. The session was chaired by Bangladesh Bank Governor Salehuddin Ahmed, while economists Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad and Nazrul Islam, Planning Commission member Quazi Mesbahuddin Ahmed, Brac executive Mahbub Hossain, former ambassador Muhammad Zamir, and prominent journalist Farid Hossain, were discussants.
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