These are good initiatives but can only be successful if many smaller power producers in the private sector supplement them. Unfortunately, till now, there has been, a poor response from such small power producers. There has relatively been very little interest in the scheme of Captive Power Policy (CPP) that envisages sale of electricity to public distribution companies by smaller private sector entrepreneurs.

The present government's aim to generate 5,875 MW of additional electricity by next five years is also facing another constraint -- state of poor gas supply. Our Power Division is apparently thinking of installing a total of 26 new power plants by 2012, of which 25 will be gas fired and one hydropower. This will however necessitate the Energy and Mineral Resources Division (EMRD) undertaking the almost impossible task of doubling the existing gas supply to feed these power plants. They have to raise the supply of natural gas by at least 1,400 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) to 3,050 mmcfd. Such a measure will require massive capital investment, but that does not appear to be in the planning cards of the EMRD. Reports published have suggested that the EMRD will try to raise supply of gas to a total of 2,400 mmcfd by the end of 2012. Such an addition will however probably be just sufficient in meeting only the current needs of consumers, including existing power plants, fertilizer factories, commercial establishments and domestic users. This addition will not be able to meet the requirement of enhanced power generation.

It will be fitting to note here that the country's present proven reserve of natural gas is about 8.40 TCF. That is set to be exhausted by 2011 at current rates of consumption. If proven and probable reserves of around 14.4 TCF is taken into consideration, the country's gas stock will be exhausted by 2015.

In the meantime, experts have also pointed out that the equation of demand and supply regarding gas has worsened and will continue to deteriorate further due to the alarming decline in gas production in a number of gas fields -- Titas, Sangu and Feni. The supply shortfall scenario has also assumed greater seriousness given the fact that (according to energy experts) we will need a further 24 TCF of gas and US dollar 7.7 billion over the next 18 years to achieve a moderate annual economic growth at seven percent.

It is such a possibility that persuaded me to write in this column under the title "Finding a solution to the power crisis" on 17 March 2007 that -- "we may also consider the financial and strategic implications of nuclear energy. We are a party to the NPT and should have no hesitation in agreeing to the compliance of required international safeguards of the IAEA. We need to discuss this with our development partners. At one time France was keen to help us in this regard. We could possibly activate such an idea again and convene a special committee of nuclear scientists and economists to scrutinise this idea with seriousness. We need energy and we need to be self-reliant. Without this there will be no poverty eradication or economic development".

It was consequently heartening to know from our Power and Energy Adviser on 24 June 2007 that Bangladesh along with seven other countries have now received the approval of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to establish nuclear reactors for power generation.

Details are not yet very clear. However, the very fact that the government has asked the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC) to consider all aspects of reviving the old proposal for setting up a clean energy nuclear power plant is significant. It is understood that studies have already been initiated in this regard. The proposed site is expected to be in Rooppur, Ishwardi in Pabna where approximately 250 acres of land have been acquired and set aside for this purpose since independence.

For many years, establishing a nuclear plant in Rooppur has been a collective dream for our nation. Conceived in 1961, it has, at various times, been the basis of discussion between Bangladesh and companies from the USA, the former Soviet Union, UK, France and Switzerland. The size of this much-awaited nuclear project has steadily grown over the decades -- from 70 MW in 1963 to 140 MW in 1966, to 200 MW in 1969, to 300 MW in 1979, to 330 MW in 1988 and eventually to 600 MW in 2001.

Such a power-generation capacity might have been considered as enough six years ago, but obviously should be considered as insufficient now. Our planners should really think in terms of 1,000 MW to make the effort worthwhile.

Earlier, during the immediate past government, our authorities had sought soft loans from China to implement the Rooppur project. A framework agreement was also signed between the two governments in 2005. Nothing much has happened since then in terms of techno-economic viability assessment.

It is understood that there might now be a slight shift. Press reports have highlighted that a high-powered delegation from Bangladesh will try to ascertain from South Korea about alternatives pertaining to nuclear power generation. Daewoo Engineering, a South Korean company, is apparently willing to provide 70 per cent of the total cost for installation of the nuclear power plant. They have also assured transfer of the required technology. This is significant given the experience of nuclear energy usage in South Korea for meeting its power needs.

It needs to be noted by our authorities that the process of urbanisation and industrialisation in Bangladesh will require uninterrupted production of electrical energy. Right now our per capita electricity generation is one of the lowest in Asia 140 kWh, compared to the Asian average of 650 kWh and the global average of nearly 2500 kWh. This needs to improve.

It is more than likely that our per capita consumption demand will rise to above 350 kWh by 2015. Consequently there has to be greater production of energy through renewable as well as non-renewable sources.

Nuclear energy is clean energy. Under proper safeguards, it could provide us with the satisfactory answer to our needs.

I know that the initial cost of such a nuclear plant will be quite high (USD 1.6 billion for a 1000 MW plant) and that it might take five years to implement it. However that should not dissuade us. We have to understand that after the huge initial investment, the subsequent sustained power generation cost will be cost effective. It will also free us of the burden of relying only on gas and dirty conventional fuels like coal.

Today 78 per cent of the power generated in France is from nuclear energy. It is 28 per cent in the UK. China and India are also enhancing their nuclear profile.

Bangladesh has no other option. We have to be bold and firm. We could raise the requisite funds through the issue of shares in foreign exchange within our expatriate community. This would broaden the base. I am confident that if we are serious, we can raise the necessary resources.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador who can be reached at mzamir@dhaka.net.