Committed to PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO KNOW
Vol. 5 Num 1140 Mon. August 13, 2007  
   
International


Thai junta's popularity put to test in referendum


In Bangkok's downtown night market, Ratporn Supsong sells wooden statues of Buddha that the faithful believe will bring them good fortune and protect them from harm.

But the 44-year-old says she is pinning her hopes for a peaceful future on Thailand's first-ever referendum next weekend, when the military-backed government will ask voters to approve a new constitution.

"I will go to vote and I will vote yes, because I don't want the political situation to get worse," she says.

The August 19 referendum only asks voters to approve or reject the charter, but the military sees it as much more -- a vote on the legitimacy of the coup that ousted elected premier Thaksin Shinawatra last September.

Generals have tried to play up the idea that they staged a popular coup, because of the warm welcome that many in Bangkok gave soldiers when they seized power, ending months of anti-Thaksin protests and political turmoil.

But for people outside Bangkok, especially in rural areas where Thaksin enjoyed immense popularity, the referendum will be their first chance to deliver a verdict on the coup.

The junta isn't risking much with the balloting -- the generals have vowed to impose a new charter even if voters reject the proposed draft.

They want to win a strong majority, as the vote would be seen as a stamp of approval for their takeover, reducing the risk of further turmoil, says political analyst Thitinan Pongsuhirak.

"If there is a low turnout, less than 50 percent, it doesn't give them very much legitimacy," he said.

"A no vote is not good for the people in power. They want to see a high turnout for a yes."

To do that, the army-installed government is doing everything it can.

A three-day weekend has been declared and the junta has convinced bus and train operators to halve their fares so that millions of migrant workers, who have to leave jobs in the city and return to their hometowns to cast ballots, can do so.

All of Thailand's 700,000 security officers have been ordered to join a get-out-the-vote campaign, which has included men in green Martian-looking masks passing out flyers on the streets of Bangkok to startled passersby.

Polls seem to indicate that voters are resigned to the constitution.

A national survey released last week by Chulalongkorn University found that 78 percent of respondents said they would vote to approve the charter, even though only 47 percent are satisfied with it.

Opponents say the proposals will grant the military continued political influence by taking power away from elected officials and giving it to bureaucrats.

But they have had a tough time getting their message heard, stifled in part by a law that threatens 10 years in prison to anyone who "misrepresents" the charter.

Thaksin's allies have led protests in Bangkok against the charter, but they have failed to gain any momentum, rarely attracting more than a few thousand people. The protests have taken an even lower profile since one rally in late July turned violent, with 100 people injured in clashes with police.

Hardly any advertisements are up either for or against the charter. Only a few taxi drivers have stuck "vote no" stickers in their windows.

Martial law imposed after the coup remains in effect across half of Thailand, making campaigning difficult outside the capital.

Many Thais like Ratporn and all the main political parties seem less focused on the charter, with their sights set on general elections, which the military has promised to hold by year's end.

"More people are willing to just move on, especially in the urban centres," said Thitinan.

The lack of enthusiasm could also be because Thais have learned not to rely on the permanence of their constitutions. The new one would be the 18th seen in the country over the last 75 years.

"We've had a lot of constitutions. It's possible we could just get a new one in five years," said a 35-year-old man selling Thai kickboxing gear at the market.