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Survey Methodology The present government led by Bangladesh Awami League and its alliances completed its one a half years in power In June 2010. With a view to understanding the current scenario, The Daily Star and Nielsen Bangladesh jointly carried out an opinion poll in early August, 2010.
The basic objective of the Daily Star-Nielsen Opinion Poll 2010 was to assess public opinion on the government's performance after completion of one and a half years. The survey assessed the current political scenario and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions. To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups: Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into six divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. Each urban area in the municipality is divided into wards, and into mahallas within the ward. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of households and respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 6 administrative divisions across Bangladesh. A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at 3,050 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was early August, 2010. The opinion survey strictly adhered to the internationally laid down methodology and ethical standard as per the guideline of ESOMAR (European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research) and standards of Nielsen Worldwide. Right or wrong direction Within the first 100 days of the government's coming to power in 2009, some 71 percent people thought the country was moving in the right direction. That number of people came down to 62 percent after one year. One and a half years down the line, only 50 percent people think the country is heading in the right direction. (See methodology and sample size of the poll in the box) On the contrary, when the first poll was conducted after 100 days of the government, 17 percent thought the country was going in the wrong direction. A year later, 19 percent thought so. And now after one and a half years, that number has shot to 34 percent. Some 15 percent now think there has not been any change in the situation. Rural people appeared to be more in a positive mood as 53 percent of them compared to 44 percent of the urban population said the country is moving in the right direction 18 months after the government's taking over. More urban people think the country is heading in the wrong direction as 38 percent said so against 33 percent of the rural population. More males (54 percent) think favourably of the situation compared with females (47 percent). Similarly fewer males (32 percent) think negatively than females (36 percent).
Economy People's confidence in the economy also slid in the past one and a half years. Within 100 days of the government's taking over, 59 percent thought positively of the economy. That waned to 50 percent after one year and plunged to 38 percent after one and a half years. When the first poll was conducted, only 13 percent thought economy will lead to a bad situation as it was moving in the negative direction. This percentage inched up to 16 percent after one year and then has shot to 31 percent now. Right now, 24 percent also think the economy is not encouraging Rural people take a better view of the economy than their urban counterparts after one and a half years. Forty-one percent of the rural respondents found good indication in the economy against 33 percent of the urban respondents.
Happy or unhappy Less people are now satisfied with the government as they were one and a half years ago. When the first poll was done after 100 days of the government in power, 62 percent said they are satisfied with the government. That number went down to 53 percent after one year and further slid to 48 percent now. After the first 100 days, no-one said they were dissatisfied with the government. But after one year 14 percent said they are dissatisfied, and now 9 percent say so. Once again, the rural people are more satisfied with the government as 51 percent said so against 42 percent of the rural respondents. Similarly 21 percent of the urban population are dissatisfied against 18 percent of the rural folks.
Inflation Managing price inflation appeared to be one serious weak point of the government after one and a half years. After the first 100 days of the government, 74 percent said the government had well-managed price inflation. This number dropped to 38 percent after one year and now stands at 29 percent. Though the slide is clear, yet it is less sharp than between 100 days and the first year. Similarly, only 20 percent thought inflation was poorly managed after 100 days. That number jumped to 52 percent after one year and rose further to 61 percent now. Women hold a dimmer view about inflation as only 22 percent of them thought it is well managed against 36 percent of the men. Again 66 percent women said they are dissatisfied with the government's actions on inflation against 55 percent men.
Issue needing urgent attention Most number of people still think inflation is the most important thing that the government should pay attention to and the perception remains unchanged over the last three polls. But interestingly, as the country witnessed frequent power cuts and gas shortage, this came up as the second most important issue in the present survey. After 100 days of the government, only 6 percent said power and gas needs the greatest attention. This remained the same after one year. But now 23 percent think it needs the greatest attention.
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