::New Year Special 2010::

LOOKING back is easy. It is certainly safer than looking ahead which is not only fraught with uncertainty, there is also a very good chance of being proved wrong about most of the utterances that one makes about the future.

But look back we must in order to be able to look ahead. For the wise at least it will afford a chance to remedy the follies of the past year. It is also imperative in order to determine why things turned out in the way they did, and how are things likely to shape in future, although that is an entirely unwise undertaking, given the unpredictability of most things in Bangladesh.

2009 was a year that witnessed two new governments, in the USA and Bangladesh, with a promise to CHANGE. For us it was also a year that was traumatized by the tragic BDR incident and massacre of BDR officers in February.

However, compared to the last few years, for Bangladesh, transition to 2009 was both eventful and peaceful.

Following a widely acclaimed election, where the turnout registered the highest participation of voters in any democratically conducted election, the AL was entrusted with the reins of the government with an overwhelming majority, much too overwhelming, one feels in retrospect, for a vibrant and functional democracy. The result, in keeping with the post election reaction of the losers in Bangladesh, was rejected by the BNP. That, in spite of huge endorsement of the several thousand international and national election monitors and observers to the effect that the election had been a free and fair one. There was indeed a huge turnout, and we say now, as we had before, that every one of the 87 percent of the voters did actually cast his or her vote, and each one of them was in fact an election monitor.

The new PM surprised the nation by her choice of cabinet members, none but three of who had any experience in administration. But the nation was willing to give her and her colleagues time to prove themselves.

Regrettably, it was politics of the usual kind that the Bangladeshis were dished out by the opposition. Not only was the election result rejected, except for the inaugural session of the 9th Parliament, the main opposition chose to stay away from the House for rest of the year. And from indications emanating from various quarters within the BNP it seems that we will witness continued boycott of the Parliament by the BNP. This has been rather disappointing with so many important matters that had to do with the national security and long term national interest remaining virtually unaddressed. It is a pity that while the BNP acknowledges the importance of the opposition's role, it seems least motivated to do its part as a political party. One hopes that when it says that the government must consult with the opposition on important issues, the BNP realises the only forum for such consultations is the parliament.

For a party that has about 32 percent of the popular vote (but not as many seats in terms of the percentage) it had forsaken its voters who remained unrepresented in the parliament despite having elected them as their representative. This is an abdication of the trust and responsibility reposed on the BNP MPs. Remaining out of the parliament on any excuse, even as ludicrous as an extra seat in the front row, is a mockery of democracy.

Amirul Rajiv

But it was also a story of unkept promises by the AL. With a huge electoral mandate and more seats than the percentage of votes it got, it not only failed to display magnanimity, it also failed to make good on the promise it had made just before the polls. And although the number of preconditions of the BNP for joining the parliament had been increasing with time, nobody can take issue with its grievance at not being given one of the Deputy Speakers posts, as promised by the AL.

The prospect of BNP joining the House appears remote with the number of demands accreting and which now includes withdrawal of cases against their leaders to the case relating to the Cantonment residence of Begum Zia to "making the atmosphere conducive" for he BNP to attend parliament. It is a pity that all entreaties to the BNP to give up their stand and join the parliament without further delay have failed.

The country saw a newly elected government after two years of political void, and it was a rather sedentary year by our standards, thankfully, as far as the political scene was concerned, with no political strike or agitation by the opposition on any account. Even their reactions to some government policies, to which they were opposed, remained quiet and even subdued. However, at the fag end of 2009 we heard the BNP talk of going for street agitation in the near future should their demands not be met.

But if it was a sedentary year on the political front, the activities in the university campuses all over the country by the student wing of the AL managed to more than embarrass the AL leadership; enough to compel the PM and the party chief to disassociate herself from the student front of the party. What was inexplicable was that, more than going after the opposition student wing, a phenomenon that we witness every time a new government takes over, one saw more of intra party fighting to gain control of the turf in various universities. The same thing was visible in tender grabbing and attempts to appropriate public works.

Regrettably, the much promised change in the political culture promised by the AL was not reflected in the educational institutions, and the activities of the BCL in various campuses very soon after the assumption of office by the AL gave the impression that the AL was not serious about change. That was not quite the change that the people wanted to see, certainly not in the educational institutions.

But whatever gains were made by the parliament election, it was very nearly nullified by the Upazilla elections which were marred by interference by the AL party men in violation of the electoral laws. And the CEC did not hide is disappointment at this. The process of reinvigoration of the Upazilla system, that was in a state of suspended animation, with the previous governments soft pedaling on it, received a setback. Much of the responsibility must be shared by the AL for the way some AL MPs conducted themselves during the election.

But if that was any indication of how the AL wants the local government system to function in the future, our fears were confirmed when Upazilla act was amended providing the MP with scope for involvement in local government affairs. This issue remains unresolved with grave potential for the local government functioning.

The vigour with which the government addressed the issue of the trial of war criminals at the beginning of the year seemed to have decreased in momentum in the middle of the year, forcing many to think whether the government was really fully up to the job, not because of any inherent shortcoming in the government, but because of the very nature of the issue including indirect pressure from outside. The venue of the court is to be finalised though we were given to understand that the preliminary work in this regard is nearing completion.

There was a good deal of introspection in many political leaders on 1/11 and also on the need to continue with the CTG system in future. Interestingly, the position of the major parties has changed drastically and the AL's and BNP's position is quite the reverse of what it was when the idea was mooted in 1996.

The issue of political reform took a back seat. The popular demand for making the political parties more democratic had not been recognised by the major parties, given the way their party councils were conducted and the manner in which the major committees were selected.

While corruption remained the core issue for us, and at one point the World Bank had refused to fund any further project in the road sector because of it, the drive against corruption floundered; it would seem that what started with a bang by the erstwhile caretaker government had petered out rather mildly. And in this regard the government's decision to withdraw, according to it, politically motivated cases did not enhance its credibility at all.

The most trying time for the nation came as a result of what happened in Pilkhana on the 25th and 26th February 2009. We shall not indulge in analysing the matter but say that the trauma was not only suffered by the military but by the nation as whole. We are waiting for the enquiry report to be made public and hope that more wisdom will be displayed by the political parties not to indulge in blame game and that the ruling party will have the sagacity to take all the parties in confidence in resolving crises.

The matter of extrajudicial killings came to the notice of the judiciary when the High Court issued a suo moto rule on the government on the matter. This issue had created severe misgivings in the minds of the people, more so when certain ministers of the government were found defending the actions of the law enforcing agencies.

The issue of terrorism and religious extremism remained in the top of the list of the country's security concerns. A large number of religious extremists were rounded up last year including some allegedly belonging to international terrorist groups, some of them foreign nationals who had been living in Bangladesh for a along time. One would like to see these cases investigated and the details made public.

The PM's suggestion for a regional arrangement to combat terrorism deserved consideration, but it had many detractors and one would have hoped that the government would have involved the opposition and the civil society and thrashed out the matter once and for all.

Reinvestigation of the August 21, grenade attack on Sheikh Hasina and the Chittagong arms haul have revealed many interesting facts, amongst which is the deliberate way that investigations were tampered with to save those who were alleged to be complicit in the case.

On the diplomatic front there was warming in the relationship between Bangladesh and India. The relationship between the two countries was at very low ebb during the 4-party alliance regime and one cannot recall any bilateral visits at foreign minister-level taking place, not to speak of visit by the head of state or government, during that period. In 2009 several high level visits were exchanged including that of the Bangladesh foreign minister to New Delhi and agreement on several issues was reached, but the qud pro quo nature of the agreement came in for criticism by some quarters in Bangladesh

Although the December visit of the PM to India was shifted to January 10, the possible agenda and issues for talks and the likely agreements that might be signed between the two countries had generated a good deal of public discourse, which is as it should be. The general feeling is that while good neighbourly relations involve a degree of give and take, we should get as much as we give. Bangladesh delivered on its commitment that its territory would not be allowed to be used against any other country by dissident elements by helping the handover to India of a few ULFA operatives alleged to have been living in Bangladesh.

The Tipai Dam and the transit issue had generated intense public discussion and lot of controversy much of it because of lack of adequate and relevant data about the former, and a typical mindset regarding the latter.

The decision of the government to join the Asian Highway Network was welcome news although the suggested route linking the network is yet to be finalised, there being no doubt that the proposed route is not the best option open to Bangladesh.

The center of attention of the global war on terror shifted from the Middle East to South Asia. and South Asia remained the focus of the world, with Pakistan was the most severely affected with the terrorists going after hard and secured targets such the AHQ. Just to put the matter in perspective, over a one fourteen-day period on October 2009 nearly 400 people, most of them innocent civilians had lost their lives to terrorist bombings in several places in Pakistan. Sri Lanka saw the end of a revolutionary war with the military defeat of the LTTE, but much remain to be done terms of addressing the legitimate and genuine demands of the Tamils if internal cohesion is to be engendered. In India Maoist threat has overtaken threats from religious terrorism but it still remains the focus of attention of the Indian government.

For Bangladesh, as for many developing nations threatened with the bad consequences of global warming, the outcome of the Copenhagen Summit was not what it had hoped for. But the saving grace is that the grave danger that Bangladesh is in, and the help needed to overcome the effects of climate change, which is already evident, have been recognised by all.

Brig. Gen. Shahedul Anam Khan ndc, psc (Retd) is Editor, Defence & Strategic Affairs, The Daily Star.