December 31, 2009

Inside

 
 

Looking back at 2009--Shahedul Anam Khan

What Lies Below--Afsan Chowdhury
The Longest
Wave
--
Photos by Amirul Rajiv

Year in Politics

Year in Culture

Year in Sport

Year in Business

 

Our Rivers, Our Dreams --Morshed Ali Khan

 

Climate Refugees Photos by Abir Abdullah/EPA
Justice, the General and His Soldier-- Tazreena Sajjad
Undefeated Bangladesh-- Photos by Naib Uddin Ahmed
Closing the Gaps--Ershad Kamol

The Rhythm of Life-- Photos by Mumit M.

 

The Search for Alternatives--Sharier Khan

First Impressions--Zafar Sobhan

Information Please--Nazrul Islam

Taking Responsibility--Syed Saad Andaleeb


 

 

 

First Impressions

Zafar Sobhan

THE day after last year's US presidential election, the November 5, 2008 headline of the satirical newspaper, The Onion, put everything into perspective: Black Man Gets Given Nation's Worst Job.

For all the euphoria surrounding Barack Obama's election as 44th president of the United States, the headline made the sobering point that he was taking the reins of a government and a country facing its most challenging crises since Franklin Roosevelt first ascended to the office in 1933.

No president since Roosevelt has inherited an economy in such deep trouble and no president since Gerald Ford in 1974 has inherited such a quagmire in terms of military operations overseas.

A sober recognition of the daunting realities that faced President Obama as he took up the oath of office last January 20 is necessary to a fair accounting of his first year in office.

According to polls, dissatisfaction with Obama's presidency has been growing, as the public becomes frustrated with the gridlock in Washington and the steady worsening of the economy.

But when we look at the big picture and compare the state of the nation with what the country looked at 12 months ago, it is apparent hat Obama has accomplished far more than he is given credit for, by either the public or the punditocracy, and that he has set the stage for a successful and meaningful presidency in the coming three years.

It is hard to overstate just how bad the crises (and I use the plural advisedly) facing the US were when Obama took office. The US economy was deep in recession and poised to fall off a precipice if urgent action was not taken. Unemployment was nearing 7.5 per cent and rising. The stock market was at 9,000 and would go all the way down to 6,500 by mid-March before rallying. Americans had lost on average a quarter of their net worth. The entire financial services world stood on the brink of failure and the auto industry on the brink of collapse.

Obama deserves credit for the bold decisions he took in the first few months of his presidency to stanch the bleeding. The initial bank bailout bill was passed by his predecessor in October 2008, but Obama wasted no time in updating and amending it as soon as February to ensure that the bill did its job and the financial system did not implode. He also passed the $787 billion economic stimulus package the same month.

Today, the economy is finally feeling the effect of these measures and has slowly begun to turn around. Unemployment remains at 10 per cent, but most analysts agree that it would be even higher without the stimulus. The Dow is back at 10,500 and rising. The economy has started to grow again, albeit slowly, at a rate in excess of 2 per cent for the third quarter.

The key legislative accomplishment of Obama's first year was the historic healthcare bill he signed into law last week. The process took far too long and the final bill contains too many compromises that have watered down its effectiveness, but Obama has succeeded in accomplishing meaningful reform of healthcare, a goal that eluded presidents Reagan, Clinton and the two Bushes. Only Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson have effected more comprehensive domestic policy change in the past hundred years.

Beyond America's borders, Obama's presidency has been even more impressive. His June speech in Cairo to the Muslim world followed by his energetic engagement with other countries at the recently concluded climate change summit in Copenhagen and elsewhere has encouraged the world that a new philosophy has taken hold in Washington, and trust for the US and its leadership and belief in its good intentions is up for the first time in a decade.

Obama has even performed with admirable aplomb in handling the most delicate of the issues he inherited: the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, pledging to have all US combat troops out of the first by the end of 2010 and the second by 2011. It is important to factor in the limitations of options that hem in any American president when it comes to these wars. Obama has done a superb job balancing a realistic and responsible appraisal of the two wars all the while fending off the howling crescendo of criticism from the right that would like to see an escalation.

There is no question that Obama's cautiousness and hesitation on a number of issues has disappointed observers. There is a growing sense that he allowed himself to get rolled, both by the left and the right, when it came to the stimulus bill, and that a more generous yet more tightly focused bill would have done even more for the economy.

Obama erred in surrendering control of the process to House Democrats, who larded it up with pet provisions, and House Republicans, who arbitrarily knocked out many worthwhile and effective measures, and insisted on ineffective tax relief, further ballooning costs.

There is incredible disappointment that the healthcare bill that was finally passed does not include the public option that more than half Americans say they want and that it has been so watered down. The dysfunctional system has not been fundamentally reformed, as needed, and the changes put in place by the bill are at best incremental.

Perhaps the biggest failure of the Obama administration has been its apparent craven surrender to the financial sector. There is widespread displeasure that the same financial institutions that needed government bailouts to avoid bankruptcy are dragging their feet when it comes to implementing the reforms needed to keep American investors and bank account holders safe.

There is frustration that, for all his fine speeches, Obama has just sent 30,000 more combat troops to Afghanistan. Guantanamo Bay remains open for business months after Obama pledged to have it shut down. Iran remains a thorny foreign problem dilemma to which Obama has not shown he has any creative solution. The same goes for Pakistan.

Critics can also point to the fact that, a the end of the day, Copenhagen achieved far less than was necessary, and that Obama will have a tough time passing a cap and trade bill in Congress next year. He seems to have used up too much political capital for too few gains, and goes into 2010 with his ratings down and with daunting mid-term elections facing his party in November. The party has already suffered a rebuke in the November 2009 polls and might well again 11 months from now if unemployment does not improve.

But while all of these critiques of Obama's first year in office are fair, in the final analysis, one would have to say that he has had a successful and effective first year in office. It is true that much more could have been achieved.

Perhaps he has learned that there is not much use in playing nice with the Republicans and that he has gained precious little from reaching across the aisle in comity.

But for all the disappointments and frustrations, when we look back at 2009 we can see that you see that it has been as eventful and successful a first year as any US president has had in living memory.

Could Obama have done more? Absolutely. Did he make some major strategic errors? No question. But he has achieved a considerable amount in 12 short months and he has laid the foundation for what I am sure will be a notably activist presidency for the next three years.

I have learned that it doesn't pay to bet against Obama. Every time I thought he was making a strategic blunder on the campaign trail he proved me wrong. Time and again I have learned that Obama's judgment and temperament are far superior to my own.

So even as I think he should have been tougher his first year and shouldn't have allowed the Congress to roll him and hold his agenda hostage, I am alive to the notion that he may just know what he's doing and that he was merely laying the groundwork for a more effective collaboration in the coming years.

2010 is going to be a tough year. The wars still rage in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the hawks are still in full battle cry. The economy still stands on a knife-edge, and even if it does pull itself out, America will find itself under a crippling debt burden. A crucial legislative battle is looming on cap and trade and Obama is low on political capital for the present. The November elections will help set the stage, for better or for worse, for Obama's re-election battle in 2012.

People are disappointed that President Obama has not seemed the heroic figure of his candidacy. The fierce urgency of now seems to have been replaced by cautious incrementalism and unnecessarily timid pragmatism.

Obama needs to learn how to not get pushed around by Democrats and Republicans alike. He needs to take a page from Ronald Reagan's book and impose his authority more. Then again, we should recall that he is a first year president with less than a full senatorial term under his belt. Not six years ago he was an obscure state senator so perhaps he is doing as well as can be reasonably expected.

The expectations of the world are upon President Obama. Not just the US, the world. The 2009 Nobel Peace Prize probably didn't help matters, but it did underscore just how high expectations are for Obama.

Given the realities of the presidency, it was only natural that he would fail to live up to the outsize expectations that the world had of him. But it is important to recognize that by any fair accounting, President Obama's first year in office has been a remarkable achievement.

Zafar Sobhan, Editor, Editorial & Op-Ed, The Daily Star, is a 2009 Yale World Fellow.

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