Climatic signals on development antenna

Dr. Dwijen Mallick

Bangladesh is a developing county with a huge population, widespread poverty and a host of development challenges. According to independent sources, the country has over 160 millions people within only 147,570 sq km of area. By 2050 the country may have more that 200 million people. We have very limited resources base. The growing population puts enormous pressure on the resources bases, basic amenities and utility services. Currently, over 40% of the population lives in poverty while 25% of them live in extreme poverty who can not afford to have adequate food and safe water for a healthy and productive life. The country has fertile land, hard working people and natural resources including rivers, water, fisheries, hills and forests and bio-diversity, but the poor and marginal communities have limited access to the resources base for their livelihoods, food and nutrition. Bangladesh made limited progress in poverty reduction in the mid 1990s, but poverty situation has again declined in the recent years.

The government has formulated the National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction and charted out a road map for pro-poor growth and rapid poverty alleviation. The General Economic Division under the Planning Commission, has formulated a Perspective Plan (2010-2021) which rightly identified the key development challenges facing Bangladesh for short term and long term future. These include: economic growth and stability with equity and social justice in the context of increasing globalization and regional competition; sustainable human development; ensuring food, water and energy security; building appropriate infrastructure and communication network; ensuring environmental sustainability and addressing climate change; promotion of good governance at national, local and corporate levels; and building secular, inclusive, tolerant and democratic society (GED, 2010). The Centre for Policy Dialogue organized a series of national dialogues on national development priorities and in 2007, the centre published a book called Bangladesh Vision 2021, which suggests that Bangladesh can become a poverty-free and middle income country with in next decade if we can accelerate economic growth with equity and promote participatory democracy, ensure efficiency, accountability and decentralized governance. At the same time, we have to improve human skill and creativity, environmental sustainability, promote social protection, inclusiveness but maintaining cultural diversity and distributive justice in society.

Limited progress in poverty alleviation and growing regional disparity
Bangladesh made some progress in poverty reduction in the last decade. The incidence of poverty has declined in 1990s and in early 2000s. The head count index of poverty measured by upper poverty line declined to 40% in 2005 from 56.6% of 1991. All the human development index including life expectancy at birth, infant mortality, adult literacy rate and population having access to drinking water and improved sanitation etc., have shown improvement (GED, 2010). But again Bangladesh has regional disparity. Economic development and poverty alleviation gave comparatively good results in Chittagoang and Dhaka divisions, while coastal divisions like Khulan and Barisal and drought prone north-western Rajshahi division have large number of people living in poverty. About 52% people live below poverty line in Barisal division followed by 51% in Rajshahi and 46% in Khulna divisions. The districts under Khulna, Barisal and Rajshahi are again affected by various natural disasters like cyclone, tidal surge, salinity, water logging, flood, erosion and drought.

Majority people are still poor and economically marginal. Again many of them are chronically poor (poverty strikes them generation after generations). The poor people living in remote and geo-physically vulnerable areas like in the char land (riverine islands and coastal islands), along river banks, hilly and coastal districts are extremely poor. They are sometimes isolated from mainstream economy and social development process and can not access the basic services and supports from the government departments and NGOs. According to a recent GED report, about 30 million people live in chronic poverty in Bangladesh. Majority of them are indigenous people and ethnic community and Charland dwellers. They also live in the fringe area and in the forefront of natural and man made disasters and thus they are hit hardest by various disasters and social shocks.

In general, about 25% of the country's population (40 millions) lives in the coastal districts prone to cyclone, salinity, water logging and sea level rise. About 50% of the country's population lives in the central, north and northeastern parts of the country who are prone to prolonged and flash floods, river bank erosion, storms and water logging. Another 30 million people are prone to drought, river erosion and Monga (seasonal joblessness and food crisis in September-November each year) in the northwestern districts of Bangladesh. In addition, global climate change and increasing natural disasters are obstructing all our efforts in poverty reduction and development. The following sections highlight on climate change, poverty and development interface in Bangladesh.

Photo: Munem Wasif/Driknews

Climate change, poverty and development interface
Climate change poses the greatest threat to human security and civilization today. It puts enormous challenge for sustainable development of the world. The problem was and is largely being created by the rich and industrialized countries, while the poor are the main victims of climate change impacts. The various negative impacts of climate change are being felt locally, particularly in the poor and developing countries.

Climate change will increase global food insecurity, hunger, poverty, migration and social conflicts. The enormous, forceful and devastating cyclones Sidr and Aila that hit the coast of Bangladesh recently had not only killed thousands of people but also devastated the lives and livelihoods of the millions. The most recent devastating cyclone Nargis generated in the Bay of Bengal had spared Bangladesh coast but had severely hit Myanmar coast on 4 May 2008 killing more than one hundred thousands of people and injured millions. The occurrence of these two major cyclones in such close proximity is consistent with IPCC projections about climatic extreme events.

The recent frequent and prolonged floods in Bangladesh, Australia, China, India and Indonesia destroyed lives and livelihoods of millions. The most recent unusual cold wave and snow fall in Europe and North America are the early signals of catastrophic changes in the water patterns and climate change. Increasing drought in Africa is causing crop failure and reduction of yield, which created food insecurity for millions. These has close link with global warming and climate change. Thus the climatic extreme events across the world reconfirmed the IPCC assertion that it is the poor of developing countries who are most vulnerable to the onslaught of climate change and its impacts.

The poor are in the forefront of natural disasters and climate impacts. They have the least capacity to address the devastating impacts on the lives, livelihood and health. Climate change is obstructing our development efforts and compounding poverty situation in the developing countries. Global food price hike induced by bio fuel production and trading has also created huge food crisis in developing countries and also led to food riot in few African countries. A recent report by World Bank also confirms that 70% of the recent food price hike in the global market was caused by bio-fuel production and trading. In this context, Prof. Sen says that the stomachs of the poor are competing with the fuel tanks of the rich nations. Hence the poor need greater support to feed them.

Climate change and development linkages
Development has both positive and negative links with climate change. Industrialization and modernization, burning of fossil fuel, global trade and business, destruction of natural resources for industrial production and over consumption particularly by the rich created the problem through GHG emission and global warming. On the one hand, the current level of rapid climate change is the result of many anthropogenic factors and unequal development and on the other hand, climate variability and extreme events again affect natural resources base, ecosystems, human systems, social systems and the development process including poverty alleviation, food and water security, livelihood of the billions in the developing countries and thus put barriers toward achieving the UN Millennium Development Goals in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The following diagram shows the complex relation between climate change and development as well as suggests both mitigation and adaptation measures to protect socio-economic development.

The Human Development Report of 2007-2008 argues that the progress made in recent years in human development is being threatened by climate change. The signs are already observed mainly amongst the poorest and most vulnerable population and countries. The report warns about loss of agricultural productivity leading to food insecurity and water stress causing enormous health risks. This will certainly increase global poverty if appropriate measures are not taken urgently by all actors. Further, the climate induced natural calamities and the climate inflicted bio-fuel issues affected the food production and food trade, which resulted in price hike of food grain in developing countries. Global wheat production has decreased sharply in the last year because of increasing maize cultivation destined for bio-fuel production for the rich countries. The poor and marginal sections of people are mainly the victims of this situation. Millions of non-poor are also becoming poor in such a situation. Bangladesh is facing like a silent famine in the contexts of climate disasters (floods and cyclones) economic shocks such as price hike of food grains. The super cyclonic Sidr and the frequent and prolonged floods caused to damage 30%-40% of crops in 2008 in Bangladesh and majority people faced food insecurity in that year.

It is apprehended that climate variability and changes will affect agriculture and food security, water and human health, ecosystems, natural resources and livelihoods of the common people. It will enhance frequency, intensity and impacts of natural disaster and possible sea level rise may dislocate millions of people from the coastal districts of Bangladesh. Thus it will increase rural to urban migration and social conflict over limited resources.

Photo: Quddus Alam, Gaibandha/Driknews

Agriculture and food security
Climate change poses serious threat to agriculture, particularly in developing countries in Asia and Africa. Both climate variability (rise of temperature and changes in rainfall patterns) and the climatic extreme events like drought, flood, cyclone etc. are affecting agricultural productivity and food security in Asian and African countries. Over 60% in Asia depends on agriculture for their employment, income, food and livelihood. Drought and climatic events have already decreased food production in Africa in the recent years and degraded the food security situation there. There would be increased pest attack in tropical crops in the warmer climate and hence it would lead to crop loss and food crisis. Salinity intrusion and possible sea level rise have already affected coastal agriculture and livelihood of millions in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and coastal countries in Africa. Recent report says that over 860 million people are suffering from severe food insecurity and chronic malnourishment in the world (WFP, 2008). About 95% of them are in developing countries. Inequitable access to food is the major factor behind this, but global warming and climatic events are also contributing to food insecurity.

The food price hike in the global market has also close link with bio-fuel production and price hike of oil. Hunger and food insecurity in Africa and Asia are increasingly threatened by extreme weather, natural disasters, institutional and weakness market failure. Considering the severity of the problem, the UN-Secretary General Mr. Ban Ki-moon urged the global community to take immediate and urgent actions to address food crisis in a high level meeting of WFP in Rome in May 2008. The technical sessions discussed the vital links between climate change impacts, bio-fuel and global food crisis. The meeting suggested immediate and long term actions by various actors including government, development partners, research organization and community organizations. The immediate actions would be food assistance for the most hungry and vulnerable community while the long term efforts would be to support agricultural development with appreciate seeds, local innovation and input supply to increase resilience of the agricultural systems in the context of climate variability and impacts.

Water and ecosystems
The IPCC already warned about the possible crisis and conflict in relation to access and control over degraded water resources. The situation would be aggravated in the warmer climate. Over 1.2 billion people lack access to safe water and 2.5 billion donot have access to basic sanitation in the world. The Stockholm Environment Institute has estimated that by 2025 the proportion of the world's population living in countries of significant water stress will increase from approximately 34 per cent to 63 per cent some six billion people, the same number of people as are currently living on Earth. And that figure is based upon only a moderate projection of climate change.

Global warming is exacerbating water stress by changing rainfall patterns, river flows, lake levels, and groundwater recharge. In some places water sources are becoming more depleted; other areas are being hit by floods. Globally, river basins and wetlands where most of the world's populations live are becoming damaged and less able to provide the conditions and processes that provide a water supply of adequate quality and quantity to ensure sustainable development and maintain vital ecosystems. Fisheries are becoming depleted and degraded. Food security is eroded as it becomes increasingly difficult to obtain good harvests.

Fresh water resources are highly sensitive to weather and climate variability. Rapid rise of temperature in the atmosphere and consequently rapid changes in global climate will affect hydrological patterns at local and regional scales as well as affect the availability of fresh water for agriculture, drinking and domestic uses. The climate model simulations suggest that total flows of fresh water, probabilities of extreme high and low flow conditions, seasonality, surface and ground water interfaces, and water quality could all be significantly affected by climate change over the coming few decades. Access to safe drinking water will be reduced in many regions resulting in human health problems, particularly in Africa and Asia.

Conservation of water resources with equitable and efficient use are to be promoted at all levels. Integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach for both flood and drought management is to be promoted for efficient and multiple uses of scarce water. Changing hydrological patters will bring both challenges and opportunities which are to be addressed through regional cooperation and ecosystem or basin management approach considering local need, indigenous knowledge and priorities.

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Diseases outbreak and health risks
Global warming will cause multiple impacts on human health and a wide range of diseases vector-borne, water-borne and respiratory have demonstrated links to climatic changes. The most vulnerable people will be older age groups and urban poor populations. Already some regions are suffering the consequences. For example, Bangladesh is already vulnerable to outbreaks of climate-sensitive diseases. Incidences of malaria have dramatically increased in the last 30 years, and malaria is now a major public health problem. Other diseases like diarrhea, skin diseases, asthma, hypertension, dengue and dysentery are also increasing, especially during the summer months. Climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall and salinity, are directly connected to incidences of diarrhea, skin diseases, malaria, kala-azar and other illnesses. Climate change is also likely to affect the distribution, lifecycle, and population dynamics of dengue fever. Additional factors, such as dehydration, malnutrition and heat stress, especially among children and the elderly, are closely linked to water supply, sanitation and food production. All will be affected by the fact of global warming. Climate change will mean that there will be less clean water for a country where waterborne diseases are already responsible for 24 per cent of all deaths.

Hurricanes, storms and heavy rainfall have direct life-threatening impacts. Urban and coastal populations are particularly at risk from storm surges, flooding and coastal erosion. Increased incidences of disease also follow floods. Access to safe drinking water is compromised by drought and other factors, such as glacial melt. Health is further threatened when nutrition is undermined by the impact of weather extremes on farming. There has been change in seasonal patterns. Hot, longer and dry summer may increase scarcity of water in the region in the coming years.

Frequent and prolonged flood will affect the sources of water and degrade quality of fresh water and thus increase vector borne diseases in Asian countries. The poor in both rural and urban settings will be the most suffers due to the emerging fresh water scarcity in the South Asia. Over 90,000 diarrheal patients were admitted to hospitals and clinics in Dhaka in a week during the flood in August in 2007. They were affected because of lack of safe drinking water. Many thousands of affected people could not come to the city because of bad communication. The challenges are to understand the new disease patterns and complex relation of disease, health and social affordability. Poor countries need resources and technical supports to address the climate related health risks.

Livelihood and poverty
Climate change impacts are affecting the livelihoods of the common people and aggravating poverty situation. Millions of poor across the Asia and Africa earn major parts of their livelihood from common property and natural resources bases like land, water, fisheries and forestry. Climate variability and climatic events are likely affect resources base and their productivity and thus it will limit the livelihood options and potentials of the poor in many ways. The livelihood assets and resources base including their employment, income, access to land, water and natural resources will be affected more severely in the changed climate. So, the poor will face more food insecurity, water stress and health problems in climate change situation. Thus climate change impacts would put barriers to achieving the MDGs. The poverty would be permanent in the planet until we can stop climate change and address its negative impacts.

According to the Stern Review, “the poorest developing countries will be hit earliest and hardest by climate change, though they have contributed little to causing the problem.” The recent report of the IPCC has asserted that climate change will deepen poverty. The direct impacts of climate change include loss of life, destruction of assets bases, infrastructures and livelihoods of the poor from the climatic extreme events. The livelihoods of the poor are to be protected and improved in the context of climate change risk and vulnerability. Resources support and alternative livelihoods are to be generated for the affected groups. The most vulnerable group may need social and economic rehabilitation. The policies and programmes in the developing countries are to be devised in line with current and future risks. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers in the developing countries must take into consideration of the new challenges to ensure livelihood of the poor and most vulnerable communities.

Climate change impacts on MDGs
The Millennium Development Goals (having eight goals with 18 targets) were adopted by the United Nations and the world leaders in 2000 to meet the development challenges of the planet. It is assumed that climate change will affect the local, national and regional development efforts, particularly in the poor countries and put barriers towards achieving the major goals. The activities under goals: 1, 4, 5, 6 and 7 would be affected severely. Climate change will hit the poor hardest making them extremely vulnerable. Climate variability and climate extremes will increase poverty particularly in the developing countries and hence the goal-1 (i.e., reducing poverty and hunger) could not be achieved by 2015. Break out of weather and water diseases will affect the goals-4,5, 6 and 7 (reducing mortality, combating diseases and improving health) and could not be achieved in Asia and Africa. Further, global warming and climate extremes will affect ecosystems and threaten environmental sustainability globally unless urgent actions are taken by all actors including the government, development agencies, communities and private and corporate sectors. The impacts of climate extreme events are strongly felt on MDGs and poverty. But the link of climate variability in terms of temperature rise and changes in hydrological patterns with poverty and MDGs are not understood well, which need further studies, awareness and advocacy at different levels.

Sir Nicholas Stern examines the economic costs and benefits of climate change impacts and actions on economy and development as well as suggests urgent actions to address climate change through stabilizing GHG emission, promotion of low carbon economy and adaptation to various impacts. He also feels that climate change threatens the basic elements of life for the people around the world access to water, food production, health and use of land and the environment. The impacts of climate change are unevenly distributed across the world, where poorest countries and poor in the societies will suffer earlier and the most. A deeper cut of carbon emission will have an initial economic cost, but will give greater development benefit in the long rung. This will need change in broader macro-economy and development models through technology generation and transfer, energy efficiency, competitiveness, equity and corporate responsibilities. He urges for promoting adaptation for dealing with unavoidable impacts of climate change and identifying the challenges for adaptation to reduce risk and vulnerability. He feels that strong and early actions on climate change will outweigh costs and give enormous development benefit for the long run.

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Sea level rise, extreme events, human displacement and social conflicts
The frequency, intensity and impacts of climatic and natural disasters have increased in the recent years. Climatic events such as flood, drought and cyclones first hit the poorest since they live in the fringe areas. Death casualty is high among the poor due to natural and climatic disasters. Further these would affect agriculture, food supply and water sources and health of the poor very badly. Thus today's poor would be extreme poor in future. The conventional disaster risk reduction measures are not effective in the contexts of frequency and intensity of climatic disasters. The cost of DRR has increased globally. The poor countries need further resources and technology supports from the developed countries in this regards otherwise climatic disasters will increase poverty in Asia and Africa.

The possible sea level rise will affect low lying and coastal countries. Millions of people would be displaced from their homes, occupations and livelihood and many would be thrown into poverty by increasing salinity and sea level rise across the world. Bangladesh is already experiencing higher level of tidal inundation in the coastal districts. The country would be highly vulnerable to sea level rise. About 45cm sea level will not only affect the vast coastal ecosystems, water and hamper agriculture and food production, but also may dislocate about 35 million people from 20 costal districts by the year 2050. These may create severe problems in rural livelihood, regional and sectoral development as well as in sharing of scarce resources (land, water, forest and fisheries) and thus it will enhance rural to urban migration and generate social conflicts in near future. The emerging climate refugees will put enormous pressure on urban economy and infrastructure (housing and communication) as well as on basic services such as water supply, power, health and sanitation.

International migration policies and programmes are to be reformulated in the light of influx of climate refugees particularly from the developing countries. Before people are forced to move, assistance should be provided with reasons to enable people to stay within their own community and culture. Locational and regional scale rehabilitation and resettlement are to be advanced before the on set of sea level rise in a greater extent.

Urgent responses to address climate change
The environmental, social, economic and political implications of global warming are profound. Ecosystems from mountain to ocean, from poles to tropics are undergoing rapid change. Mitigating climate change, eradicating poverty and promoting economic growth and political stability all demand the same solutions: we must kick the carbon habit. We must reduce GHG and carbon emission urgently and immediately to save the planet and human civilization. The good news is that technologies already exist or are under development to make the consumption of carbon-based fuel cleaner and more efficient and to harness the renewable power of sun, wind and waves. We all are parts of the solution. Conscious individuals, organizations, political authorities and private sectors across the world must understand the problem and opportunities and take urgent and bold action now for saving the earth.

The key challenges for all of us are: a) to stop climate change through urgent mitigation measures now and create effective framework for post 2012 commitment with greater participation of both developed and developing countries to halt dangerous climate change; b) explore how to live in a warmer climate which is now unavoidable; and c) promote low carbon economy and life style of rich, who do the most harm through luxuries and over consumption. UNFCCC, KP, Agenda 21, WSSD Plan of Action, MDGs and the Bali Action Plan under the COP and MOP gives guiding principles towards a transformation and positive shift of economy, society, right types of development and institutions. But we seriously lack actions.

There are powerful arguments in favor of making the transition towards a low carbon economy that presents a huge opportunity rather than a burden. Greening the global economy might cost little as a few tenths of global GDP annually over the next 30 years, but it could be a driving force for innovation, new business, industries and employment opportunities across the developed and developing worlds. Fighting climate change and poverty requires multiple, but combined and accelerated efforts by the governments, development agencies, relevant actors and vulnerable communities. These may include both software and hardware structural measures to raise awareness, building capacity and protection of the resources base, livelihood of the poor as well as to reduce various risk and vulnerability of climate change. The urgent key responses include the following:

Enhancing understanding and awareness about climate change impacts at local and social contexts;

-Urgent measures for stopping dangerous climate change by reducing GHG emission as well as formulation of post 2012 framework for larger participation with greater commitment by both developed and growing economies

-Building capacity of the poor, stakeholders and actors to reduce risk and vulnerability;

-Protect poor and their assets and livelihood from climate impacts;

-Advancing community adaptation to climate change;

-Improve DRR in the current and future threat of climate change;

-Sectoral adaptation and climate proofing of development efforts;

-Resources transfer and technology supports for the poor and most vulnerable;

-Building greater resilience in natural, human and social systems; and

-Raising voice of the poor against climate injustice.

Integration of climate and sustainable development policies and actions

The sustainable development policy (UN Agenda-21) and actions can complement the climate change policies and actions such as UNFCC, Kyoto Protocol and Bali Action Plan for mitigation and adaptation etc. The UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol require that climate change be tackled within the wider context of sustainable development. But climate change negotiations are still dominated by concerns about reducing emissions amongst industrialized nations and few attempts have been made to operationalise climate change into the wider development agenda.

Conclusion
To achieve sustainable, equitable and inclusive development, we have to alleviate poverty first and at the same time address climate change impacts at local, regional and country levels. Much of our efforts and investments may go in vain, if we can not make our development climate resilient and for this we must formulate and implement appropriate national strategy and action plan to address climate change as well as seek global cooperation since the problem was mainly created by the industrialized and rich countries. Many of the solutions and technologies as well as resources are with developed countries. We can not solve the climate change problems and address the impacts alone. Hence, we must pursue and seek that type of cooperation which may support us for both poverty alleviation, inclusive development, environmental sustainability and reducing risks of disasters and climate change for the long run.

The CoP and the related global decision making process must take into consideration of the developing country issues seriously and create scope and structure for effective participation and contribution from the South to reverse the current practices. We have to ensure equity and justice in mitigation, adaptation, technology generation and transfer as well as in resource allocation to save the planet, our people and ecosystems from the emerging danger of climate change and thus build a better and just world for the current and next generations. The former US Vice-Precedent Mr. Al Gore, in his Nobel Peace Award receiving speech in 2007, strongly advocated that we have solutions in our hands and now we need strong will to act collectively and urgently. Any delay in taking right action now will increase the cost of climate mitigation responses and adaptation in future. Let us raise our collective voice against the climate injustice and non-action from the rich countries.

Dr. Dwijen Mallick, Fellow and Sociologist of Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), an independent research and policy institute in Dhaka