Dhaka Thursday February 25, 2010

New opportunities: New Challenges

Syed Muazzem Ali
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PID Photo

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's recent State visit to India has largely restored a climate of trust and confidence between two close neighbors whose ties have previously been marked by mistrust and misgiving, accusations and counter-accusations, especially during the four-party alliance government from 2001-06. The visit has opened up a new panorama for enhanced cooperation in newer areas, as well as for resolving bilateral problems. However, it is just the beginning, and both sides have to demonstrate great political will and understanding and seize the opportunities to move forward. The primary prerequisite is to get out of the “box” and broaden our vision.

It is natural to have bilateral problems with one's neighbors, more so for a country like Bangladesh which is surrounded by India on three sides. We not only share land and maritime boundaries, and also common rivers, we also exchange goods and services, and often share natural disasters and pandemic diseases. We are tied by common history and geography; and neither can we change our history nor can we change our geography. Thus it is unnatural not to have an ongoing dialogue with them, and the “burden of history” should not make us captive of our prejudices and prevent us from looking at our own long-term interest.

Bilateral tie is a two-way street. India, as the larger neighbor and in consideration of her long-term interest, should take note of its smaller neighbours' sensitivities and vulnerabilities, and demonstrate greater political will to establish mutually cooperative ties with its neighbors. A stable, strong and friendly neighbourhood is the best security guarantee for any country, more so for India which is beset with problems with armed separatists and terrorists. These groups and their backers could exploit the grievances of India's smaller neighbours to further their own goals.

It is precisely the security issue that had bedeviled Indo-Bangladesh ties during the four-party alliance government. India had been accusing Bangladesh of harbouring terrorist groups on its territories, but the BNP-led government had been denying it and making counter accusations. Unfortunately, terrorist activities in Bangladesh went unabated and it not only threatened our security but also tarnished our image abroad. The succeeding caretaker government largely controlled terrorist activities, but in the absence of popular mandate, could not take any concrete step to restore mutual confidence.

The present Government, on assumption of power, made it categorical that it would not allow any terrorist activities, or allow any terrorist group to use Bangladesh soil to launch any attack. The three agreements that were signed during the recent Summit-level visit relate to a) mutual legal assistance on criminal matters, b) transfer of sentenced persons, and c) combating international terrorism, organized crime and illicit drug trafficking. These agreements should clear the air of mistrust. As a matter of fact, both Bangladesh and India are signatories to various agreements/conventions on these issues adopted under the aegis of the UN, SAARC and other bodies. All that is needed now is their full implementation in letter and spirit. The MOUs on cooperation in power and culture arena signed during the visit are also to be applauded.

The most significant outcome, however, is the 51-para Joint Communiqué which virtually includes all important bilateral issues under a “comprehensive framework” of cooperation and development. This is a welcome change. After former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's visit to India in March 2006, only a short 8-para Joint Press release was issued. In this article I intend to focus only on the core issues in the communiqué.

AFP

The border is of primary concern, as “good borders make good neighbors”. After a long gap, the relevant body, that is the Joint Boundary Working Group (JBWG), has been asked to meet to demarcate the remaining 6.5 km of common boundary and to discuss other border-related issues in the spirit of Indira-Mujib accord of 1974. Breaking the ice, Bangladesh has invited India to construct a flyover above the tin-bigha corridor for their exclusive use, so that Bangladesh can have free and uninterrupted access to her enclaves. Management of the long 4000 km border is a major challenge for both sides, and maximum restraints should be exercised by both sides to avoid border skirmishes and killings. It may be recalled that the tragic border skirmishes at Padua/Roumari in 2001 had pushed both countries to the brink of war. Furthermore, recurrent killing of our nationals by the BSF create tension and panic in the border every now and then, and these have to stop forthwith.

As to the demarcation of maritime boundary, both sides have agreed to amicably settle the issue through bilateral discussions in addition to the arbitration process which Bangladesh has resorted to under the provision of the UNCLOS.

Connectivity is viewed worldwide as a major economic opportunity, and countries in all other regions seek to derive maximum benefit out it. Smaller countries in Europe like Belgium, Netherlands, Austria and Switzerland have been taking maximum advantage through connectivity with their larger neighbors. However, this largely economic issue gets bogged down in our sub-region due to lack of trust and confidence.

Interestingly, Pakistan has much better rail and road connectivity with her arch-rival India than Bangladesh has with India. It is Pakistan that has taken the initiative in this matter and she is also an enthusiastic supporter of the proposed Asian Highway. Islamabad is equally keen on the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipelines. Is it a change of heart? They are simply trying to increase their leverage over India.

Why should Bangladesh be afraid to restore the rail link that she had with India prior to Indo-Pakistan war of 1965? The much publicized Maitree train service between DhakaCalcutta opened with lots of fanfare two years ago is a classic case to demonstrate how a well-intentioned project can be made redundant and a losing concern by bureaucratic bungling and bad management. Can we rectify the past mistakes and make it user friendly? On the gas pipe line issue, why should energy-hungry Bangladesh should oppose installation of a Myanmar gas pipeline to India over her territory and deprive herself of transit revenues as well as future gas supply source?

It is particularly sad that Bangladesh's biggest comparative advantages of its location as a land bridge between two emerging economic zones and China has never been utilized. Our ports are strategically located but under-utilized and under-developed. It should be in our national interest to make them regional and inter-regional hubs. In order to do that we need huge infrastructural development, but we cannot meet the cost by ourselves. It requires mega-investment. The only viable option is to engage our neighbors and make them interested in our ports under a comprehensive commercial framework. We are not alone in this race. Neighboring Myanmar is also trying to develop its Sittwe port as a regional hub. Which port will emerge as the future “Singapore” of this region will depend on who can develop fast and offer its facilities to others for use.

After years of non-action by Bangladesh on the connectivity issue, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has taken some bold action under a regional framework. During her recent visit to Bhutan, she finalized rail and road transit deals with Bhutan and Nepal over Indian territories. Now she has moved to make Chittagong and Mongla ports regional hubs, has agreed to let India use them, and also expressed Bangladesh's intention to extend the same facility to Nepal and Bhutan. China and Myanmar will also be invited in due course to use our ports. Our longer term objective should be to develop a deep sea port in Chittagong.

Star File Photo

Bangladesh-India trade relations are marked by huge imbalance in favor of India as their exports to us are about ten times larger than their imports from us. Last year their exports to Bangladesh were about US $ 3.5 billion, whereas our exports to them were only about $4o0 million. Our major challenge is finding ways to bridge this widening trade gap with our very short export list. Indian exports to Bangladesh are mainly vehicles, chemicals, food items, fabrics, cotton, and machineries. Some of these items are also used as raw materials in our major exports. If we can produce these items at home, we could avoid these imports. Otherwise, we have to boost our exports. As an LDC we have been urging India to grant duty-free access to our export items and also to remove non-tariff and para-tariff barriers imposed by their State governments which hinder our exports. India, as per the communiqué, has agreed to remove these barriers and grant duty-free access to more exportable items from Bangladesh. The detailed list of these items is being worked out by trade bodies of both sides.

The President of India-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry hopes that if our exports are given preferential access, then Bangladesh should be able to export goods worth $ 1 billion by the end of next year. Our natural export markets in India are the north-eastern States and we should fully utilize it. How far these can be realistically achieved will depend on whether these pledges translate into action at the operational level and whether we can produce the items they need.

Nevertheless, let us be honest: we can not offset the billion dollar deficits through our limited export list and have to look at other options such as joint investment projects, transit fees and service charges, and other innovative methods. Indian investors are reportedly keen to undertake joint venture projects in Bangladesh, and we should encourage our business bodies to meet their Indian counterparts to strike out a win-win deal.

During the visit India offered a $ 1 billion line of credit for a range of projects, including railway infrastructure, supply of BG locomotives and passenger coaches, rehabilitation of Saidpur workshop, procurement of articulate and passenger buses, dredging projects etc. Much hard bargaining will be needed to see whether the terms and conditions of their credit line and the items they can offer are commercially viable for us.

Other major challenge for our bilateral ties is the question of water sharing. Bangladesh and India share 54 common rivers but so far, they have been able to sign water-sharing agreement only on Ganges. After a long time, the Joint River Commission has been asked to reconvene and finalize the water-sharing accord on Teesta. On a priority basis we also have to reach water-sharing deals on nine other rivers. It is a pity we suffer from floods and drought but have not been able to harness our enormous water resources for our common benefit. In the long run we have to take a regional approach to build a series of small-scale dams and barrage projects in an integrated way. This would give us less expensive hydroelectric power, and augment our agricultural production.

As regards the controversial Tipaimukh project, India has reiterated her earlier pledge that she would not take any step that would adversely impact Bangladesh. There is clear need to closely monitor the project. If it is a flood control-cum-hydroelectric project, then it is less damaging. In that case, it is necessary to assess as to what benefits we can derive out of this project. However, if there is also a Phulertola barrage or irrigation project, then it would seriously affect us and we must oppose it forcefully.

Given the complex bilateral scenario I have enumerated above, it should be clear that in order to implement the pledges and wishes as expressed in the recent joint communiqué we have to work hard for years and no government can fulfill them in one or two terms.

The world over, foreign policy is an ongoing bipartisan issue to protect a country's vital national interest. Yes, it is natural for different parties to have different sets of priorities and perceptions but they have to reach a broad consensus, if not unanimity, to protect our national interest. Given the geographical realities and our common history, relations with India assume special importance. We do not have to love our bigger neighbor, but we definitely have to live with them on the basis of a mutually beneficial cooperative ties. It should be apparent that “non resolution” of outstanding bilateral issues with our neighbor hurts us more then it hurts them as they have an upper hand on most of these issueswater-sharing or trade balance, and demarcation of land or maritime border. Hence “non action” is not an option for Bangladesh.

Today's party in opposition is tomorrow's party in government, and vice versa. So our major parties should avoid the polemics and percentage games, and engage themselves in debates on these issues in the Parliament and its various Committees to work out a bipartisan approach on foreign policy issues.

In this globalization era, there is no alternative to dialogue and cooperation, especially with our neighbors in the region. India, as an emerging global economic power, should associate her smaller neighbors in her growth process so that they may also take advantage of this opportunity to develop themselves. It should be self evident by now that bad governance and instabilities of her neighbors are bigger threats to India's security than the challenges posed by the nuclear arsenal of her arch rival. The world has changed and the sooner we change our “mindset”, the better we do.

Syed Muazzem Ali is a former Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh.

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